SA: We’re in the Calm before a New Storm of COVID-19 Infections and Deaths

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Recently, states like Georgia have decided to end shelter-in-place orders. Unfortunately, lifting this rule will likely have repercussions observable in increased number of infections, deaths, hospitalizations, and demand for beds and ventilators far exceeding supply. An agent-based model has been developed to track the spread of COVID-19 geographically, while also modeling disease progression and behavior. This model is a useful tool to simulate various scenarios of interventions like shelter-in-place and school closures varying in duration and compliance. This model has demonstrated that school closures alone will not stop the spread and toll of COVID-19, however, it has identified voluntary quarantine to be a promising partial-solution to maintain social distancing without deeply hurting the economy.

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